GOP analysis shows Democrats’ statehouse map deviates up to 30%

(The Center Square) – New U.S. Census data could require changes to the political maps the state’s Democrat-controlled legislature approved earlier this year.

The map already approved for Illinois statehouse seats may have to be redone. Illinois statehouse Republicans say the courts have no choice to usher in a bipartisan mapmaking commission.

Democrats drew and passed statehouse seats this spring. Gov. J.B. Pritzker enacted the maps. The maps were drawn after the U.S. Census released state-level numbers.

Those numbers didn’t break down population on a local level, something integral to drawing maps with equal representation. The new data released last week does.

Basing the legislative maps on American Community Survey estimates was highlighted by legal challenges this summer.

On Monday, Republican analysts said the latest block-level data the Census released last week shows the Democrats’ maps go beyond allowed deviations.

“Just as we predicted, the maps that were drawn by Illinois Democrats in a closed room and without public input, and signed by Governor Pritzker, have proven to be unusable and unlawful given the release of the U.S. Census data,” said House Republican Leader Jim Durkin, R-Western Springs.

“In fact, the biggest variants between the smallest district and the largest district is 30%, which is way out of whack,” state Rep. Tim Butler, R-Springfield, said at an unrelated event on Monday. “So what we contend … is that these maps are not valid, were not valid.”

The GOP analysis says the Democrats’ approved maps’ “House districts have population counts ranging from 92,390 (District 83) to 124,836 (District 5) – a difference of 32,446. Based on a test directed by the U.S. Supreme Court, that difference represents a total population range of 29.88%, which is three times the maximum range allowed by federal law.”

Pritzker on Monday said lawmakers may have to rework things.

“And to the extent that there are changes that will need to be made, that’s certainly something the Legislature will need to take up and I’ll consider,” Pritzker said.

He said something similar this spring before approving the maps.

“I think there will be Census data that comes out and there may need to be some adjustments made as a result of that Census data,” Pritzker said June 1.

On Monday, Butler said that since the constitutional deadline of June 30 for action from lawmakers has passed, a commission must take over.

“That means it goes to this bipartisan commission that’s spelled out in the constitution, an eight-member commission,” Butler said. “Leader Durkin has made his appointments to that commission and I think that that’s the avenue that we should go down.”

He said he expects that’ll be a case made to the courts by Republicans.

“I think that’s what we’re going to ask the federal courts to do and this means that the governor signed a bill that really was invalid, and they knew it all the time,” Butler said. “They knew that the ACS data was going to come back like this.”

The Illinois House Speaker Emanuel Chris Welch’s office said “experts are analyzing data,” but had no immediate updates “at this time.”

The Senate President’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Lawmakers may soon take up new maps for the U.S. congressional seats. That’s done every ten years after the U.S. Census completes their count. Final numbers of the U.S. Census were released last week.

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