DBRS Morningstar – French Presidential Run-off Likely to Remain Tight but Broad Policy Continuity Still the Most Likely Outcome

FRANKFURT, Germany–(BUSINESS WIRE)–This commentary introduces the results of the first round of the French presidential elections that took place on the 10th of April 2022 and discusses DBRS Morningstar’s view ahead of the run-off scheduled for the 24th of April. Following the vote, DBRS Morningstar continues to expect that the future government is likely to maintain broad policy continuity and commitment to the gradual rebalancing of France’s fiscal accounts, a key supportive feature of the country’s credit profile. DBRS Morningstar also considers that the parliamentary elections scheduled for the month of June will be critical for the future President to deliver on its policy agenda.

Key highlights include:

• For the first round of French presidential elections, Macron with 28% of the votes finished first followed by Le Pen with 23%.
• The run-off between both candidates is likely to remain tight.
• After the presidential elections, DBRS Morningstar will focus its attention on the parliamentary elections in June.
• DBRS Morningstar continues to expect broad policy continuity and commitment to fiscal rebalancing from the future government.

“While we continue to expect broad policy continuity after the presidential and legislative elections later this year, we consider that the risk of potential social movements will remain a key consideration in coming months, under any scenario, and will therefore monitor the potential economic impact of any future demonstrations,” said Nicolas Fintzel, Senior Vice President at DBRS Morningstar.

To view the full report, click here: https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/395184/french-presidential-run-off-likely-to-remain-tight-but-broad-policy-continuity-still-the-most-likely-outcome

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Dennis Ferreira

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