Election 2024: Competition thin for changes in state Senate
(The Center Square) – Representation from the beach, near I-95 and in the most populous county are forecast to shape Republicans’ balance of authority in the 50-seat North Carolina Senate on Nov. 5.
Arguably the most watched among them will be the latter, where Democratic House Rep. Terence Everitt of Wake Forest makes a run for the Senate District 18 seat. Sen. Mary Wills Bode opted not to run for reelection, saying on social media she needed to focus on her family.
Four veterans of state politics, inclusive of the political spectrum left and right, provided analysis to The Center Square. Party targets and map redistricting shaped considerations. Collectively, there’s belief few seats are competitive and possible to flip.
Early in-person voting begins in 10 days on Thursday of next week; Election Day is 29 days away; and absentee by mail voting is underway.
Historical pattern and ongoing polling futures favors a Democrat to keep the office of governor. Enacting legislation in the General Assembly, therefore, can hinge with ability to withstand gubernatorial veto. Majorities are expected for Republicans and three-fifths majorities – lawful minimum to override vetoes – means minimums of 30 in the Senate, 72 in the House.
Those represent the key numbers watched by both parties. The GOP seats won falling outside of the 29-31 and 70-74 ranges, respectively, would constitute significant movement.
Everitt originally planned to retire from his time as a lawmaker. He said a push to run for the upper chamber was made by Gov. Roy Cooper.
To keep the seat for his party, Everitt will need to turn back Wake Forest Republican Ashlee Adams and Raleigh Libertarian Brad Hessel.
The District 7 seat is another considered among the most competitive. Sen. Michael Lee, a Republican from Wrightsville Beach, is challenged by Wilmington Democrat David Hill and Wilmington Libertarian John Evans.
In an area where Democrats’ voting bloc is good, Sen. Lisa Barnes of Spring Hope has the District 11 seat. She’s challenged by Nashville Democrat James Mercer.
Among four other races, the most interesting guaranteed a newcomer is in the Charlotte area. District 42 is home of Sen. Rachel Hunt, the Democrat making a run for lieutenant governor. She is the daughter of immensely popular former Gov. Jim Hunt.
Vying to succeed her are Charlotte Democrat Woodson Bradley and Charlotte Republican Stacie McGinn.
The other three races getting the most attention are two seats held by Republicans and one by a Democrat.
The District 4 race matches Sen. Buck Newton, R-Wilson, against Goldsboro Democrat Raymond Smith. In District 24, Lumberton Republican Danny Britt is opposed by Lumberton Democrat Kathy Batt.
And in District 13, Raleigh Democratic Sen. Lisa Grafstein is challenged by Cary Republican Scott Lassiter and Raleigh Libertarian Susan Hogarth.
