Trump, Harris statistically tied going into Election Day
(The Center Square) – In the final stretch of the 2024 election season, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on Thursday remain statistically tied in the latest polls to come out of North Carolina.
Trump has slowly created a lead as the campaign nears the finish line. Still, the fight for 16 electoral college votes is consensus rated a toss-up.
Trump leads by an average of 1.1% at Project 538 and by 1% at RealClear Polling. Neither percentages include a margin of error because they are aggregates; common margins are +/- 3% to 4% for most polls.
In the last 10 polls reported by 538, each has led four and two were tied.
Of the four polls that Harris led, she never led by more than 1%. In contrast, Trump led his by anywhere from 1%-3%.
Considered one of seven battleground states, winning North Carolina is critical in the race for the White House. Both candidates and their campaigns have regularly frequented the state in the last few weeks, holding competing rallies just 60 miles apart on Wednesday.
Each will be in the state Saturday, the last day of early in-person voting.
If Harris were to win North Carolina, it would be very bad news for Trump’s campaign and a bellwether for the outcome of the election. A Democrat has not won the state since 2008, since former President Barack Obama shocked the nation by flipping it.
Yet, the polling history looks favorable for Trump.
Both four and eight years ago, the Republican outperformed the polls and won the state twice.
In 2020, Biden was polling 1.8% ahead of Trump going into Election Day and ended up losing the state by 1.3%. Unlike Harris, Biden never trailed Trump in the final months.
North Carolina has also had historic Republican turnout in early voting, with nearly 50% of all registered voters in the state having already cast their ballots.
