Final polls are in for presidential race – it remains tight
(The Center Square) – Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump’s furious campaigning will draw to an end this week as voters head to the polls on Tuesday.
With one day until ElectionDay, the two candidates are nearly tied, according to the latest polling.
According to Polymarket’s online betting market, Trump has a 60% chance of beating Harris, Republicans have an 82% chance of winning the Senate, and Democrats have a 54% chance of winning the House.
These numbers have changed daily, as have the polls, though the latest polling shows a closer race.
According to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, Trump and Harris are in a dead tie nationally.
Among the swing states that will decide the outcome, RCP has Trump leading Arizona by 2.5 points, Georgia by 1.9 points, Nevada by 1 point, North Carolina by 1.5 points, and Pennsylvania by 0.3 points.
In the same averaging of recent polls, Harris leads Michigan by 1.2 points and Wisconsin by 0.4 points.
Regardless of the slight leaning, RCP has 108 electoral votes as “toss up” votes, meaning the election could easily go either way.
FiveThirtyEight, another poll aggregator, has Harris up by 1.1 points nationally as of Monday, and has Trump and Harris tied in Pennsylvania and Nevada.
FiveThirtyEight has Trump leading in North Carolina and Georgia by one point and Arizona by two points while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin by one point.
The closer the results are, the longer it could take to name a final winner.
In 2020, the Associated Press named President Joe Biden the winner four days after Election Day. In 2016, Hillary Clinton conceded the race early Wednesday morning.
In 2008 and 2012, former President Barack Obama was quickly named the winner of his races.
Notably, many Americans have already voted. In fact, about 75 million Americans have reportedly cast their ballot, nearly half of the number that voted in total in the last presidential election.
As The Center Square previously reported, 33 Senate seats are up for election Tuesday, with 19 of the seats currently occupied by Democrats, 10 by Republicans and another 4 by Independents that lean Democrat.
Those numbers mean Democrats are on the defensive in the U.S. Senate this election cycle.
RCP has marked seven as “toss-up” races with six of those seats currently held by Democrats.
U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., is up for reelection as well, but he is in trouble with his seat in the “lean GOP” category.
In the U.S. House of Representatives, RCP has classified 23 Democratic seats and 18 Republican seats as being in “toss-up” races.
