Analysis: Cities with the biggest increase in used car prices
2020 was a volatile year in many sectors of the economy, and the market for used cars has been no different. Used car sales tend to follow consistent seasonal patterns, peaking early in each year and trending downward as the year goes on. But like the rest of the economy, the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic early in the spring brought the used car market to a halt, with total sales falling to their lowest levels since 2014. With more workers staying at home and travelers forgoing trips due to shutdowns and social distancing measures, consumers’ need for automobiles was substantially lower.
Since the summer, however, prices have rebounded sharply. One of the major reasons for this was a decrease in supply. COVID-19 shutdowns didn’t just change consumers’ needs – they also disrupted global supply chains, dramatically reducing the number of new vehicles manufactured in the first half of 2020. Because manufacturers produced fewer new vehicles, the overall supply of vehicles available for sale – new or used – has been constrained, and that scarcity has helped push used car prices to record highs.
However, these price increases have not been consistent across all vehicle types. Passenger vans – facing reduced demand in the era of social distancing – have fared the worst, experiencing a decrease in price of almost 4% since June. Other categories geared toward families and commuters, like minivans, hatchbacks, crossovers, and wagons, have seen relatively small price changes. In contrast, truck prices have seen the largest increase, at more than 12%, followed by coupes (9.4%), cargo vans (8.4%), and convertibles (7%).
Most of the individual vehicle models with the largest price increases are trucks as well. Nissan’s Frontier leads all models, increasing in average price by more than 15%. Thirteen of the 15 models with the highest price increases are trucks, with the Dodge Challenger and Chevrolet Camaro the only automobiles that aren’t trucks to crack the list.
Local markets also have a strong impact on car prices. Using a proprietary dataset of more than 1.3 million used car listings in the United States, CoPilot’s researchers calculated the percentage change in used car prices between June and December 2020 for the nation’s largest metropolitan areas. The researchers also calculated the model with the sharpest price increase over the same time period in each metro.
Here are the metros with the biggest increase in used car prices over the past year.
Major Metros With the Largest Rise in Used Vehicle Prices
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15. Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC
Average used car price change: 5.47%Model with the largest price increase: Dodge ChargerPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 18.4%Population: 2,636,883
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
14. St. Louis, MO-IL
Average used car price change: 5.52%Model with the largest price increase: Dodge ChargerPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 20.8%Population: 2,801,423
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
13. Memphis, TN-MS-AR
Average used car price change: 5.55%Model with the largest price increase: GMC Sierra 1500Price change for the model with the largest increase: 17.2%Population: 1,344,910
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
12. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV
Average used car price change: 5.62%Model with the largest price increase: Ram 1500Price change for the model with the largest increase: 22.6%Population: 2,266,715
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
11. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
Average used car price change: 5.65%Model with the largest price increase: Nissan FrontierPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 21.7%Population: 6,018,744
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
10. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Average used car price change: 5.73%Model with the largest price increase: Dodge ChallengerPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 32.5%Population: 4,948,203
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
9. Richmond, VA
Average used car price change: 5.81%Model with the largest price increase: Ford F-150Price change for the model with the largest increase: 21.5%Population: 1,290,866
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
8. Birmingham-Hoover, AL
Average used car price change: 5.90%Model with the largest price increase: Toyota TacomaPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 18.0%Population: 1,090,435
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
7. Jacksonville, FL
Average used car price change: 6.35%Model with the largest price increase: Toyota TundraPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 20.6%Population: 1,559,514
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
6. Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
Average used car price change: 6.36%Model with the largest price increase: Chevrolet Silverado 1500Price change for the model with the largest increase: 18.3%Population: 2,800,053
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
5. Austin-Round Rock, TX
Average used car price change: 6.42%Model with the largest price increase: Ford F-250 Super DutyPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 27.3%Population: 2,227,083
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
4. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
Average used car price change: 6.48%Model with the largest price increase: Ford F-250 Super DutyPrice change for the model with the largest increase: 38.5%Population: 6,166,488
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
3. Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN
Average used car price change: 6.56%Model with the largest price increase: Ram 1500Price change for the model with the largest increase: 28.5%Population: 1,933,860
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
2. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
Average used car price change: 7.36%Model with the largest price increase: Ram 2500Price change for the model with the largest increase: 23.4%Population: 2,608,147
Photo Credit: Alamy Stock Photo
1. Salt Lake City, UT
Average used car price change: 7.37%Model with the largest price increase: Ram 1500Price change for the model with the largest increase: 19.0%Population: 1,232,696
Methodology & Detailed Findings
The data used in this analysis is from CoPilot’s proprietary dataset of more than 1.3 million used car listings in the United States. For this analysis, only model years 2015 and newer were included.
For every metropolitan area, CoPilot calculated the percentage change in average listing price for each year-make-model cohort between June and December 2020. CoPilot then created a weighted average of these changes based on the number of vehicles listed in each cohort. The resulting statistic is reported as the average change in used car prices. The same analysis was performed at the state and national level.
The models with the biggest price increases were calculated across all model years for each make-model cohort. To improve relevance, less popular models were not included in the analysis.
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