Election 2024: Four races pivotal to Republican power in House

(The Center Square) – Four races are expected to decide just how much power Republicans can muster in the 120-seat North Carolina House of Representatives this fall.

Two others are considered worthy in the discussion and three more represent longshots. Because of location and a party switch, the most talked-about in the lead-up for more than a year is held by Rep. Tricia Cotham, R-Mecklenburg. Results could render someone else grabbing headlines after ballots are counted.

Four veterans of state politics, inclusive of the political spectrum left and right, provided analysis to The Center Square. Party targets and map redistricting shaped considerations. Collectively, there’s belief a few seats are competitive and possible to flip, though on the whole of 170 in the General Assembly it represents a small fraction of Election Day activity.

Early in-person voting begins in 10 days on Thursday of next week; Election Day is 29 days away; and absentee by mail voting is underway.

Historical pattern and ongoing polling futures favors a Democrat to keep the office of governor. Enacting legislation in the General Assembly, therefore, can hinge with ability to withstand gubernatorial veto. Majorities are expected for Republicans and three-fifths majorities – lawful minimum to override vetoes – means minimums of 30 in the Senate, 72 in the House.

Those represent the key numbers watched by both parties. The GOP seats won falling outside of the 29-31 and 70-74 ranges, respectively, would constitute significant movement.

Cotham, a Charlotte educator in her second stint in the House following a failed congressional bid in 2016, on April 5 of last year said Democrats “picked the wrong chick” to try and control. She said that day she would be a Republican, and immediately became a target for a seat flip in this fall’s election season.

To win a second consecutive term, and sixth overall, she’ll need to fend off Charlotte’s Nicole Sidman in House District 105.

Democrats are incumbents in two other pivotal races.

Additionally, the race in District 35 is where Democratic Rep. Terence Everitt is running for state Senate rather than reelection in the House. The candidates are Evonne Hopkins, a Democrat from Raleigh; Mike Schietzelt, a Republican from Wake Forest; and Michael Oakes, a Libertarian from Wake Forest.

Rep. Diamond Staton-Williams, a Democrat from Harrisburg, is challenged by Jonathan Almond, a Republican from Concord, in District 73. Rep. Lindsey Prather, a Democrat from Candler, is tested by Ruth Smith, a Republican from Weaverville, in District 115.

Two districts touching the I-95 corridor with solid Democratic voting blocs have Republican representation. Rep. Ken Fontenot, a Republican from Wilson, is challenged by Democrat and fellow Wilsonian Dante Pittman in District 24. In District 25, Middlesex Republican Rep. Allen Chesser faces Battleboro Democrat Lorenza Wilkins.

Considered consensus next level of outside chance for upsets are three districts with Republican incumbents.

In District 32, Oxford Republican Rep. Frank Sossamon tries to fend off Oxford Democrat Bryan Cohn and Creedmoor Libertarian Ryan Brown. In District 37, Holly Springs Republican Rep. Erin Pare is tested by Raleigh Democrat Safiyah Jackson and Fuquay-Varina Libertarian Christopher Robinson. And in District 98, it’ll be a newcomer to Jones Street in the race between Huntersville Republican Melinda Bales and Davidson Democrat Beth Helfrich.

Rep. John Bradford, R-Mecklenburg, opted to run for the 8th Congressional District seat rather than his place in District 98. The Rev. Mark Harris won the primary and Bradford was third on Super Tuesday.

Most interesting of 10 other races on the fringe of the radar is District 104, where Charlotte Democratic Rep. Brandon Lofton is challenged by Charlotte Republican Krista Bokhari. She is the wife of Tariq Bokhari, a Republican city councilman in Charlotte.

Favored in the other nine races are Republican Rep. Bill Ward of Elizabeth City in District 5; Republican Rep. Dr. Tim Reeder of Ayden in District 9; Republican Rep. Chris Humphrey of Kinston in District 12; Republican Rep. Ted Davis Jr. of Wilmington in District 20; Republican Rep. Jarrod Lowery of Lumberton in District 47; Republican Rep. John Blust of Greensboro in District 62; Republican Rep. Stephen Ross of Burlington in District 63; Republican Rep. Dennis Riddell of Snow Camp in District 64; and Republican Rep. Jeff Zenger of Lewisville in District 74.