Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the First Quarter (April-June) of 2021-22
The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (April-June) Q1 of 2021-22, both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP. These are presented in Statements 1 to 4.
2. The Quarterly estimates of National Accounts are indicator based and data sourced from various Ministries / Departments/Private agencies serve as valuable inputs in the compilation of these estimates. For Agriculture & allied activities, the first quarter estimates are based on agricultural production targets for 2021-22 obtained from the Department of Agriculture, Cooperation & Farmers’ Welfare; estimates of production, mainly in the form of production targets for Milk, Egg, Meat and Wool for Livestock Sector, from the Department of Animal Husbandry & Dairying and Fish production data from the Department of Fisheries.
3. Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union and State Governments expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) respectively for the period April-June 2021 have been used. Performance of key sectors like Transport including Railways, Road, Air and Water Transport etc., Communication, Banking and Insurance during this period has been considered while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector in the first quarter based on data received from BSE/NSE has also been taken into account. Additional data sources like GST data, e-way bills have also been put to use.
4. GDP is derived as the sum of the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices, plus all taxes on products, less all subsidies on products. The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes Non-GST Revenue and GST Revenue. The latest information on the website of Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products and subsidies on products at Current Prices. For obtaining Taxes on Products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services and aggregated to get the total volume of taxes. Latest available data on the CGA and CAG websites for Revenue expenditure, Interest payments, Subsidies etc., was used for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).
5. With a view to contain the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, localized and calibrated lockdowns were imposed during the first quarter of 2021-22. Restrictions were imposed on the economic activities not deemed essential, as also on the movement of people. The lockdown instructions in various States were duly considered by the National Statistical Office. The impact on economic activities and the data collection mechanisms owing to COVID-19 pandemic has an effect on the Quarterly GDP estimates also. The impact of these measures on overall economic activity are embedded in source data.
6. GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q1 of 2021-22 is estimated at ₹ 32.38 lakh crore, as against ₹ 26.95 lakh crore in Q1 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 20.1 percent as compared to contraction of 24.4 percent in Q1 2020-21. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at Constant (2011-12) Prices for Q1 of 2021-22 is estimated at ₹ 30.48 lakh crore, as against ₹ 25.66 lakh crore in Q1 of 2020-21, showing a growth of 18.8 percent.
7. GDP at Current Prices in the year Q1 2021-22 is estimated at ₹ 51.23 lakh crore, as against ₹ 38.89 lakh crore in Q1 2020-21, showing a growth of 31.7 percent as compared to contraction of 22.3 percent in Q1 2020-21. GVA at Basic Price at Current Prices in Q1 2021-22, is estimated at ₹ 46.20 lakh crore, as against ₹ 36.53 lakh crore in Q1 2020-21, showing a growth of 26.5 percent.
8. Estimates of GDP along with GVA at Basic Price by kind of economic activity, Expenditures on GDP at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices, as well as percentage change and rates of expenditure components of GDP for Q1 2019-20 to 2021-22, are given in Statements 1 to 4.
9. Percentage change in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in Annexure 1.
10. Estimates are likely to undergo revisions in due course, as per the release calendar.
11. The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter July-September, 2021 (Q2 of 2021-22) will be on 30.11.202l.
