Marist Poll: Fetterman’s lead narrows, but remains 6 points ahead of Oz
(The Center Square) – The latest election poll for a Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat shows Democrat John Fetterman maintains a bigger lead over Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz than the consensus of four other polls.
And the pollster issued a word of caution.
“We’re not looking to hedge the result, but certainly to be cautious in looking at narrow advantages as being when they put a lock on the races,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said in a teleconference after results were announced.
He added all polls have been statistically really close and there’s been more uncertainty generally due to issues with getting polling responses.
The Marist Poll found that Fetterman leads Oz 51% to 45% among definite voters and 50% 44% among registered voters, with 4% and 5% of voters undecided, respectively. Those numbers closely reflect Marist’s last survey from September, as The Center Square previously reported, when Fetterman led Oz 51% to 41%.
Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, still does better among independents (46% to 37%), but that lead has dwindled. In September, independents supported him 55% to 33%.
Inflation, preserving democracy, and abortion motivate voters the most, according to the poll, followed by crime, health care, and immigration. Republicans and independents cite inflation as their greatest concern, while Democrats see preserving democracy as their most important issue.
Marist polled 1,254 Pennsylvania adults by phone, by text, and online, with a 3.8% margin of error for registered voters and a 4% margin for definite voters.
Marist’s poll, however, diverges from other recent polls. Polls from the Trafalgar Group, Remington Research Group, Susquehanna, and Emerson College all give Oz a narrow lead within the margin of error, while polls from USA Today and Fox News show Fetterman with a lead of 2% to 4%. Until Oct. 26, no poll had shown Oz with a lead.
“In the battle for the majority in the U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania is the Democrats’ best chance to pick up a seat,” Miringoff said. “If Oz can close the gap with the Election Day vote, it will be a big step for Republican control of the Senate.”
Democrats have a registered voter advantage in Pennsylvania, as The Center Square previously reported, and Miringoff noted President Joe Biden has a better approval rating in the commonwealth compared to other states.
“It’s less headwind for the Democrats and that’s why they’re doing better here than we see in a lot of other places,” Miringoff said.
What the poll reflects is that, even though Fetterman struggled in the Senate debate and political commentators were worried it would hurt him, it didn’t affect most voters, Miringoff suggests.
“What happens in debates very often is people are not looking to be persuaded; I think it’s fans cheering or booing for the candidate they like or dislike,” Miringoff said. “We do see a narrowing of the difference in Pennsylvania, but that’s what we’ve been seeing around the country, so I don’t know if it’s necessarily a result of the debate per se.”
