Poll shows majority of North Carolina GOP primary voters opposed to Medicaid expansion

(The Center Square) — A majority of likely Republican primary voters remain opposed to expanding Medicaid in North Carolina, according to a statewide poll published Thursday.

The Civitas poll, conducted by Cygnal, surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters April 1-3 about a variety of political issues, including the controversial expansion of Medicaid in the Tar Heel State.

North Carolina is among a dozen states that have resisted expanding Medicaid eligibility through the Affordable Care Act, and the poll results reflect that reality aligns with the desires of most Republicans voters.

Pollsters posed the question: “Under the Affordable Care Act – commonly called Obamacare – some states have expanded eligibility for Medicaid. Do you support or oppose expanding Medicaid in North Carolina?”

Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they either “somewhat oppose” or “strongly oppose,” and that figure increased when pollsters offered more information on the move.

A total of 65% of respondents said they were less likely to support expansion considering that “Medicaid expansion would cover mostly healthy, working-age adults with no children,” and that “some of these potential enrollees already have private health insurance.”

The survey also informed those polled that “the Biden administration recently indicated it would no longer allow states that expanded Medicaid to include work requirements for Medicaid benefits for the expansion population,” and noted that “any changes, including expansion, to a state Medicaid program, require approval from the federal Department of Health and Human Services.”

That information made support less likely for 56% of Republicans surveyed.

“Medicaid expansion is still an electoral loser for legislative Republicans,” Donald Bryson, president of the John Locke Foundation, told the Carolina Journal. “Aside from expansion being bad policy, it makes incumbents vulnerable to primary challengers and is unlikely to create new Republican voters in a general election.”

Republicans in the General Assembly have opposed Medicaid expansion for years, citing expected cost increases for the state despite incentives from the federal government. Democrats and Gov. Roy Cooper, meanwhile, have worked to promote expanding eligibility by citing the benefits to about 600,000 non-elderly adults who would qualify.

The issue was a sticking point as Republican lawmakers negotiated the state’s budget with Cooper last year, and was ultimately left out of the legislation.

Senate Leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, said in November that while he believes expansion is bad policy, it was “a trade that was worth considering” during the budget negotiations.

The compromise budget did, however, result in a new bipartisan Joint Legislative Committee on Access to Healthcare and Medicaid Expansion, and the committee has met four times since the start of the year to investigate the impact of expansion.

The committee has heard from a host of experts advocating for expansion, which would be covered by an estimated $1.5 billion to $2 billion incentive through the American Rescue Plan Act.

That 18-member committee, tasked with examining both Medicaid expansion and “the various ways in which access to health care and health insurance can be improved for North Carolinians,” is next scheduled to meet on April 12.

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