Report forecasts Pennsylvania will warm 5.9 degrees by midcentury without carbon regulations

(The Center Square) – Pennsylvania’s average temperature will rise 5.9 degrees Fahrenheit by midcentury, public environmental officials said, causing more frequent heat waves, rainfalls and localized flooding.

The Department of Environmental Protection released its Climate Impacts Assessment for 2021 on Wednesday in which federal, state and local data helps illustrate the trend of rising temperates and increasing rainfall as the state approaches midcentury – defined as in the report as 2041-70 – without limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

“On our current path, the Pennsylvania our children and grandchildren inherit will be very different from the one we grew up in and continue to enjoy today,” Gov. Tom Wolf said. “We simply cannot afford to ignore the warning signs, and this report underscores the critical need to take action to reduce emissions and do our part to address climate change.”

The report comes one day after the DEP released its final rule-making that will enter the state into the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, if approved by two state advisory boards this summer, in January 2022.

The 11-state program auctions off caps – one for every ton of carbon dioxide emitted – to power plants with capacities of 25 megawatts or greater. States reinvest the proceeds into projects that promote energy efficiency, renewable technologies, emissions abatement and direct bill savings.

A report of 2018 investments, the most recent available, shows 16% of the $248 million in auction revenue from that year was used to lower consumer bills.

Wolf and supporters tout RGGI as a way to reduce harmful pollutants from the energy sector, slashing carbon emissions alone by 223 million tons and spurring 27,000 new jobs in clean energy.

DEP Secretary Patrick McDonnell said Wednesday the program will generate $300 million in revenue for the state that will funnel into “targeted investments” that address climate change and environmental justice.

Critics worry the program will shutter fossil fuel plants prematurely, spike electricity prices and drive jobs into nearby Ohio and West Virginia. Pennsylvania serves as the region’s largest power exporter and the number two producer of natural gas in the nation, positions that RGGI could erode, detractors insist.

The most high profile critics of the DEP’s rule-making come from the Republican-controlled General Assembly. Although Wolf said the federal Clean Air Act gives him authority to enter Pennsylvania into RGGI, it would be the first state to do so without the permission of the legislature.

It’s a step Republicans believe the constitution requires. In a letter sent to the governor on Wednesday, 16 Republican members of the House Energy and Environmental Resources Committee reiterated their stance and promised legal action should the administration proceed.

“Unfortunately, if this process does continue, a lengthy court battle will almost certainly be coming, which will be expensive and draining for all involved,” the letter concludes.

The Senate Republican Caucus likewise told Wolf last month the chamber won’t confirm any of his appointees to the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission until he withdraws the executive order mandating RGGI participation. The governor retaliated by pulling his cabinet nominees and firing 11 longtime appointees, many with Republican ties.

The Wolf administration said, despite resistance from lawmakers, internal modeling shows a majority of residents support the program. McDonnell said most of the 14,000 public comments collected during the rule-making were in favor of joining.

The House letter questioned the integrity of the modeling after the consulting agency hired by the DEP to conduct the analysis was identified as a signatory on several letters that encouraged both the Citizens Advisory Council and the Environmental Quality Board to support RGGI.

The company, ICF International, denied all knowledge of the letter and said its name had been “added in error.”

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