“Tauktae” over Eastcentral Arabian Sea: Cyclone Alert for Gujarat & Diu coasts (Yellow message)

According to the National Weather Forecasting Centre of the India Meteorological Department (IMD): (TIME OF ISSUE: 1200 HOURS IST, DATED: 16.05.2021, INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT)

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “Tauktae” (pronounced as Tau’Te) over eastcentral Arabian Sea moved nearly northwards with a speed of about 11 kmph during past 06 hours and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 16^th May, 2021 over eastcentral Arabian Sea near latitude 15.3°N and longitude 72.7°E, about 120 km west-southwest of Panjim-Goa, 420 km south of Mumbai, 660 km south-southeast of Veraval (Gujarat) and 810 km southeast of Karachi (Pakistan).

It is very likely to intensify further during next 24 hours. It is very likely to move north-north-westwards and reach Gujarat coast in the evening hours of 17^th & cross Gujarat coast between Porbandar & Mahuva (Bhavnagar district) around 18^th May early morning.

Forecast track and intensity are given in the following table:

 

Warnings:

(i) Rainfall: 

• Kerala: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th and heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.
• Karnataka (coastal & adjoining Ghat districts): Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th.
• South Konkan & Goa: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and extremely heavy falls at isolated places over south Konkan & Goa and adjoining Ghat areas on 16^th and heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th May.
• North Konkan: Light to moderate rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places on 16^th and 17^th May.
• Gujarat: Light to moderate rainfall at many places very likely to commence over coastal districts of Saurashtra from today afternoon, with heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Saurashtra & Kutch, Diu and southern most Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls at isolated places on 17^th and with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over Saurashtra & Kutch and Diu & south Gujarat region with extremely heavy falls (≥ 20 cm) at isolated places on 18^th.
• Rajasthan: Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy to very heavy falls & extremely heavy falls at isolated places very likely over south Rajasthan on 18^th & heavy to very heavy falls at isolated places over Rajasthan on 19^th May.

(ii) Wind warning

• Gale wind speed reaching 130–140 kmph gusting to 155 kmph is prevailing over eastcentral Arabian Sea. It is likely to increase over eastcentral Arabian Sea becoming 145-155 kmph gusting to 170 kmph from 16^th May mid-night.
• Gale winds speed reaching 80-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph along & off south Maharashtra –Goa and adjoining Karnataka coasts on 16^th, 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast on 16^th. It is likely to become 65- 75 kmph gusting to 85 kmph along & off north Maharashtra coast from 17^th till 18^th morning.
• Squally wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph likely over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off south Gujarat & Daman and Diu coasts from 16th morning and gradually increase becoming Gale winds speed reaching 150-160 kmph gusting to 175 kmph over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast (Porbandar, Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bhavnagar) and 100 -120 kmph gusting to 135 kmph over Bharuch, Anand, south Ahmadabad, Botad, Surendranagar, 90 -100 kmph gusting to 120 kmph over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Morbi districts of Gujarat from early hours of 18th. Gale winds speed reaching 70-90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph likely to prevail along & off Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, Kheda districts from 17^th mid-night till 18^th morning.

(iii) Sea condition

• Sea condition over eastcentral Arabian Sea will be very high to Phenomenal on 16^th May and over northeast Arabian Sea on 17^th & 18^th May.
• Sea conditions will be very rough to High along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts on 16^th May and along & off north Maharashtra coast on 17^th Morning. It is very likely to be very rough to High along & off south Gujarat coast from 17th May morning and very high to Phenomenal from 17^th midnight.

(iv) Storm surge warning

Tidal wave above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas as per details below:

about 3 m over Junagarh,1-2.5 m over Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Ahmedabad, Anand, Surat  and about 0.5 -1m over Devbhoomi Dwarka , Jamnagar, Porbandar, Kutch the remaining coastal districts of Gujarat during the time of landfall.(Details given in Annexure-I).

(v) Fishermen Warning

• Total suspension of fishing operations over eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Karnataka-Goa–Maharashtra coasts.
• Total suspension of fishing operations over northeast Arabian Sea and along & off Gujarat coast from 17^th May.
• The fishermen are advised not to venture into eastcentral Arabian Sea along & off Karnataka coast till 17^th Morning and into eastcentral Arabian Sea and along & off Maharashtra–Goa coasts and into northeast Arabian Sea along & off Gujarat coast till 18^th May.
• Those who are out at Sea over north Arabian Sea are advised to return to the coast.

(vi) (A) Damage Expected over Porbandar, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath Botad & Bhavnagar and coastal areas of Ahmedabad:

• Total destruction of thatched houses/ extensive damage to kutcha houses.  Some damage to pucca houses. Potential threat from flying objects.
• Bending/ uprooting of power and communication poles.
• Major damage to Kutcha and Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.  Minor disruption of railways, overhead power lines and signaling systems.
• Widespread damage to salt pans & standing crops,. Blowing down of bushy trees.
• Small boats, country crafts may get detached from moorings.
• Visibility severely affected.

(vi) (B) Damage Expected over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot & Morbi, Valsad, Surat, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, Anand, Ahmedabad districts of Gujarat:

• Major damage to thatched houses/ huts. Roof tops may blow off. Unattached metal sheets may fly.
• Minor damage to power and communication lines.
• Major damage to Kutcha and some damage to Pucca roads. Flooding of escape routes.
• Breaking of tree branches, uprooting of large avenue trees. Moderate damage to banana and papaya trees. Large dead limbs blown from trees.
• Major damage to coastal crops.
• Damage to embankments/ salt pans.

(vii) Action Suggested:

• Mobilise evacuation in vulnerable areas.
• Total suspension of fishing operations.
• Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic.
• People in affected areas to remain indoors.
• Movement in motor boats and small ships unsafe.

(Please CLICK HERE for details in graphics)