Trump’s polling lead remains steady in North Carolina
(The Center Square) – Two recent polls both have former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by 2%.
While still within the margin of error, Trump has been consistently leading Harris in the polls since mid-September. Since Sept. 20, Harris has led Trump in North Carolina in only two of the 21 polls tracked by Project 538.
Project 538 has calculated that Trump has a 0.9% average polling lead in the state.
Historically, Trump has consistently managed to outperform pre-election polls on Election Day. For example, he outperformed the polls here both four and eight years ago, winning the state twice.
In 2020, Biden was polling 1.8% ahead of Trump going into Election Day and lost by 1.3%. The Democrat never trailed in the final months leading up to the election.
Yet, with its 16 Electoral College votes, Democrats still consider the state in play this election season. It has been the focus of both campaigns over the last few months, and Democrats believe they can win the state for the first time since Barack Obama in 2008.
One of the most-recent polls is a Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll, which was sponsored by The Telegraph and was conducted Saturday through Monday. It polled voters from 10 different states which it considers swing states or competitive states in the 2024 election.
In North Carolina, 48% of those polled said they plan to vote for Trump, while 46% plan to vote for Harris.
Another poll from the Trafalgar Group, which had Republican-funding, found a similar positive overall margin for Trump of 47% to Harris’ 45%.
The Trafalgar poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday and polled 1,085 respondents. It had a margin of error of 2.9%.
The Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll also asked voters if they plan to vote for a different political party than the one they voted for in 2020.
In every state polled, more 2020 Biden voters say they will now vote for Trump than 2020 Trump voters say they will vote for Harris.
In North Carolina, 10% of 2020 Biden voters say they are now planning to vote for Trump, while only 6% of 2020 Trump voters say they plan to vote for Harris. That is a 4% positive swing for Trump.
